In 2022 28% of New Zealand’s total exports and 53% of the forestry exports (by value) went to China. China’s population is predicted to fall by half (some would say crash) by 2100. How do we create new products and services, and target other markets to replace China?
The problem is not just China, but out of the top ten markets for NZ forestry (China, Australia, South Korea, Japan, United States, Indonesia, Taiwan, India, Thailand and Philippines) four have declining and ageing populations (China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan). These four countries receive over three quarters of NZ forestry exports (76%).
Population is not the same as consumption, but they are associated. Some of these changes will be gradual, some abrupt, but we need to prepare as soon as possible.
Graph: total population predictions by the United Nations’ Department of Economic and Social Affairs.