This post is one of those ‘explain to myself how things work’ documents, which are not necessarily completely correct but are close enough to facilitate understanding.
Background
Let’s assume that we are working with a fairly simple linear model, where we only have a response variable (say tree stem diameter in cm). If we want to ‘guess’ the diameter for a tree (yi) our best bet is the average (μ) and we will have a residual (εi). The model equation then looks like:
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